On today's episode of FAFO, Texas style

July 7, 2025

It’s a long one today, but I’ve got a timeline of the disaster in Texas and there is a lot to discuss. There is a lot of misinformation going around. I’m a few counties east of all that, so I got rain but no damage here. But here’s the truth, and what you need to know. Lots of finger pointing and blame, but who to blame? My Magic 8-Ball says “It is not certain.” Edit: I just got transcripts from all the county commissioner meetings where they discuss a warning system. More on that below, and it will all be in tomorrow’s column.

It’s not on the NWS, though. Yes, there were vacancies at the San Angelo office, but the Austin/San Antonio office issued watches and warnings and we don’t know right now if they were heeded and if not, why not.

First, some background: those camps in the area (Mystic, Waldemar, Heart o’ the Hills, Stewart) have flooded plenty of times; in the 80s my cousin had to swim out of her cabin during a flash flood. There was a flood in 1987, and one that broke all previous records in 1998. And there have been flash floods on a regular basis. Seguin (Suh-GEEN), down the Guadalupe river, had “destructive” floods in 1838, 1848, 1868, 1872, 1906, 1921, 1936, 1952, 1972, 1973, 1978, 1989, 1991, 1998, 2015, 2020 and 2021. Looking at the satellite images, the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry were visible on satellite, and they were predicted to pass over that area. A low-level jet stream stalled the storm over the area. Any meteorologist will tell you that it’s pretty impossible to predict how much rain will fall and where exactly it will fall.

July 2: the Texas Division of Emergency Management activates swift water rescue teams and other rescue resources because some computer models predicted high levels of rainfall.

July 3: At 9:47 am, the Texas Division of Emergency Management posted on X with information about what to do in a flood: “As we head into the holiday weekend and the flood threat in West and Central TX continues, stay weather aware!” Lt. Governor Dan Patrick said the TDEM had “personally contacted the judges and mayors in that area and notified them all of potential flooding.”

3:35 pm: The NWS posts a flood watch on X.

July 4: At 12:42 am, the Austin/San Antonio office of the NWS upgraded the flood watch to a warning for a specific area, which was later expanded.

1:14 am: The NWS issues a flash flood warning. It was issued soon after thunderstorms developed and before any of the river gauges showed any increase in the water level. It says “Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.” It also warned of “life threatening flash flooding” and “Flash Flood Damage Threat: Considerable.” (“Catastrophic” is the next higher category.) That phraseology triggers FEMA’s Wireless Emergency Alert that activates cell phone alerts in the area as well as weather radios.

Around 3:30 am, Kerrville city manager Dalton Rice went jogging along the banks of the Guadalupe and said he didn’t see a “drop of rain”. He went back home around 4 am and “There was very light rain… We did not see any signs of the river rising at that time.”

4:06 am: NWS issues a catastrophic flash flood emergency. Between 4-6 am the Guadalupe rose 30 feet in 45 minutes.

5:15 am: the NWS out of San Angelo posted on X that there was a flash flood emergency. The Austin/San Antonio office posted the same at 5:23 am. The NWS says this type of alert is “exceedingly rare” and only issued if there is a “severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage.”

6:16 am: the Kerrville Police Department posted on its Facebook page, issuing a weather warning. It was a “life threatening event” and “anyone near the Guadalupe River needs to move to higher ground now.”

6:32 am: the Kerr County Sheriff’s Department posted about the flooding on their Facebook page.

7:22 am: Kerrville’s City Hall posts on Facebook about the “Much needed rain [that] swept through Kerrville overnight, but the downside is the severe weather may impact many of today’s scheduled July 4^th events. Citizens are encouraged to exercise caution when driving and avoid low water crossings. Kerrville Police and Fire Department personnel are currently assessing emergency needs.”

7:33 am: Kerrville City Hall posts about road closures.

8:32 am: Kerrville City Hall posts “If you live along the Guadalupe River, please move to higher ground immediately.”

I do not know what happened at Camp Mystic but I’m sure we’ll learn more soon; weather radios cost about $30 and believe me, they WILL wake you up. I don’t know if someone wasn’t on watch, or why they didn’t start evacuating right then because a warning means you have a taco and stuff is going down right then (a watch is like when you have the ingredients for a taco, but no actual taco); perhaps they did start evacuating. No one from the camp is talking right now. We do know the waters rose far more than predicted and they rise FAST. Anyone who’s lived in Texas can tell you that but they can also tell you that it’s not uncommon. It’s absolutely terrifying to witness. I’ve seen it happen at Lake LBJ and Marble Falls.

Kerrville city manager Dalton Rice said “There’s a balance between do you evacuate and put chaos on the road and potentially risk people getting stuck on a road? This is hill country… There’s a lot of low water crossings. A lot of our operations plans—especially with these camps, that is—the plan is to sometimes shelter in place to get them to those known high grounds and then wait for rescue.”

I don’t know who is to blame and I don’t know that you can lay the blame on one particular entity. By all accounts, the NWS did its job admirably. Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said at a press conference on Friday that “This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States, and we deal with floods on a regular basis—when it rains, we get water. We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what has happened here, none whatsoever.”

Um, excuse me. That dog’s not gonna hunt. You can’t say that you live in the “most dangerous river valley” and then say you had no “reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what has happened here” and that “when it rains, we get water.” The county had considered a flood warning system along the river. Kelly said “We’ve looked into it before—the public reeled at the cost.” So community leaders and county officials knew the river was a danger, and that flooding was an issue.

I will say this, though. The San Angelo office of the NWS was missing a senior hydrologist (they study water distribution and movement), a staff forecaster, and a meteorologist in charge due to DOGE cuts. However, there were five people on staff that night as opposed to the usual two. The warnings were more than adequate, but did anyone heed them? Magic 8-Ball: “The future is uncertain.” With the climate emergency, this sort of thing will happen again. Look at Tropical Depression Chantal and the damage in North Carolina happening right now. But I have transcripts from county commissioner meetings where they discuss a warning system, decide it’s too expensive and the sirens would be annoying, and then, with $5 million just sitting in their bank account with no strings, refuse to use them because they came from the Biden administration and it’s all on record. That’s where a big part of the blame lies so be sure to stay tuned for tomorrow. I’ll let their own words damn them.

World Central Kitchen was on the ground in a day, and HEB, a Texas grocery chain, has a disaster response team with lots of trucks that were rolling out as the sun rose on the devastation. We love HEB (so named because those are the founder’s initials; H.E. Butt). Mexico, even with the treatment they’ve gotten from our government, sent rescue teams, out of pure human kindness and we are grateful. If you’d like to help, Austin Pets Alive and Kerrville Pets Alive are taking donations. All animals found will be cared for, attempted to be re-united with their families and if not, adopted out to loving families. Those found deceased will be cremated with respect and dignity. There will also be a pet supply pantry for locals who are in need. Losing your home is hard enough; at least you can have your beloved pet beside you during this time of tribulation.

That’s all I have for you today, kittens.